AI and Memecoins Lead Crypto Profits in 2024: AI tokens soared by 2,940%, while Memecoins gained 2,185%, dominating the year's top crypto narratives.

"While absolute returns remain good for the dominant companies, these strong returns fade over time, and they often remain solid ‘compounders’. Importantly, however, the returns are generally negative for dominant companies if an investor buys and holds them as other faster-growing companies come along and outperform". Also - the obvious domination by technology stocks taking over from a diverse group in previous decades.

Top 1% now (in 2024) owns 30% of the household wealth up from 23% back in 1990. And Bottom 50% mere 2.5% down from 3.5%!

Innovations in computing have 4 venues in the current paradigm.

• New materials: diamond, III-V and III-N compound semiconductors, glass substrates

• Memory: future generations of HBM or CXL, stacking DRAM directly on top of the GPU, hybrid bonding, photonic interconnects (from inter-rack to inter-GPU co-packaged optics and eventually to inter-chiplet), new non-volatile memory

• Process: backside power, GAA then CFET then 2D TMD and then carbon nanotubes, 3D packaging, SDA, High-NA EUV

• Systems-level design: building AI’s sparsity into GPU hardware, data centre liquid cooling, chip designs specific to a given model, wafer scale chips, data centres as the new compute unit

Application designers can not design the applications for today's token economics but rather at least 1 year into future. We are seeing manyfold drops within 6 month time horizon. There won't be huge value trying to optimise the applications for costs but more beneficial to design for user experience

As opposed to AI Training (where NVIDIA dominate with estimated 98% marketshare) AI inference competition is shaping up. The new performance benchmark evaluate each AI chip against the number of GPUs, power consumption, Queries/Task across broad range of AI tasks

5 Platforms are supported by - Cryptocurrencies, Smart Contracts, Digital Wallets, Multiomic Technologies, Precistion Therapy, Programmable Biology, nueral Net, Next Gen Cloud, Intelligent Devices, Adaptive Robotics, 3D Printing, Reusable Rockets, Autonomous mobility, Advanced Battery Technology

Annual forecast growth combined sectors of AI, Robotics, Public Blockchains, Multinomic Sequencing, Energy Storage will grow from $220T up from $19T today from 2023 to 2030 in Market capitalisation terms. Growth in rest of the sectors would be a mere $98T to $140T - the former being 42% and latter being 3%

A dynamic and rapidly growing ecosystem of AI-driven solutions is reshaping design across various disciplines

Enterprise Value (EV - Market Cap)) divided by Next Twelve Months Free Cash Flow (NTM FCF) is on median 29 for US market listed SaaS companies. Few are outperforming by a mile even in this difficult market!

Key drivers for Artificial Intelligence, particularly Large Multi-Modal Models - Training compute, data, architecture/algorithms, GPU chip performance &summed costs are on an exponential growth curve annually. No trend so far in history - internet users, mobile users, solar capacity etc have scaled to this level

Electric power, chip manufacturing, data and latency as constraints. We conclude that 2e29 FLOP training runs will likely be feasible by 2030. This represents a significant increase in scale over current models, similar to the size difference between GPT-2 and GPT-4.