All in one Podcast 2024 predictions

Predictions for this year from the besties

E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chamath_Palihapitiya

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Calacanis

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Friedberg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_O._Sacks

Interesting high level trends noted:

1. Significant strengthening of the global south from failing wars from western powers - very distirubing trend in the global landscape

2. A war or disturbance of somekind is going to unravel. Debt is highest in several of oil producing nations and standards of living is falling, forcing for drastic steps. There is a prediction of a nulear weapon deplyment too - what more you need

3. Asset prices seems to have appreciated too early to sustain and likely to bumpy ride of the rate cuts did not materialise.

4. AI will continue to make inroads in media, software, SaaS - inflationary effect of this going to great but net effect difficult to predict

5. US politics is likely going to undergo a big shift away from the leading parties given the lacklustre candidates we are going to get. None predicted the election results interestingly. Thats interesting in an election year

6. The performance of Magnificent 7 is likely to be lacklustre. Also OpenAI is likely to lose its steam due to its high cost of tokens

Biggest Political Winner:

1. Putin - He has become the victor against western powers. He has restored his economy. Military upperhand in Ukraine already. The media portrayal will be corrected. And more support from global south and BRICS (David Zacks)

2. Independent 3rd party in the US which will break out from democratic and republican parties (David Friedberg)

3. Independent centrists - JFK ans such (Chamaath)

4. Darh horse candidate who will challenge Trump and Joe Biden (Jason Calcanis)

Biggest Political Winner:

1. COPs : Biggest spending from Republican party. Short on Nickey Hailey (Chamaath)

2. Ukraine; Funding this war is going to be very difficult for US in an election year (David Friedberg). 0.5million soldiers lost lives, 10million fled and 10million pensioners

3. Collective west has put in all wrong bets - Ukraine, Israel/Gaza and Russian and Chinese front is gaining front and solidarity everywhere (David Zacks)

4. Nethanyahu. Israilites are angry with his leadership and lack of wins in Gaza (Jason Calcanis)

Biggest Business Winner:

1. Commodity businesses. Demand is picking and trying to rebuild of inventories after COVID. As funds from treasury gets relocated the price will go up (David Friedberg)

2. Bootstrapped business with positive cashflow (Chamaath)

3. Andrones - killing low cost drones instead of using missiles (David Zacks)

4. Publishing houses which will be in a position to demand a profit from OpenAPI and other LLM models, (Jason Calcanis)

Biggest business loser:

1. Vertical SaaS businesses (because its so much easier to build low code) (

2. Germany as an industrial power due to loss of lost gas supply cheaper cars from China,

3. Peak for the valuations for professional sports - the dynamic of this industry is changing and there are fewer media houses who are willing to keep paying for them

4. Smart phone manufacturers too overpriced handsets and there is significantly less value coming from these handsets

Biggest business deal:

1. BTF (Bank Trading Finance) started last year April is just for 1 year - but regional banks are in bad shape to withdraw this at this moment. Fed will strike a new deal here

2. Starlink will go public

3. Bytedance will take tiktok public

4. PetroYuan dollar still remains, but likely ones would be on the media rights and the generative AI companies

Most Contrarian Belief:

1. Enterprise value of OpenAPI goes down - Latency, Cost of tokens are unaffordable. Therefore startups who are building proprietary hardware and will eventually sell those to enterprises will win the game (Chamath)

2. Nuclear weapon being used for the first time - could be tactical in nature, but to offset the effect of the long grinding traditional warfare will force one of the parties to try this (David Friedberg). Turkey is challenged to leave NATO due to their contrarian position with the west in several theatres

3. Softlanding becomes bumpy. The early gains in stockmarket is too early which is a result of optimism in rate cuts (David Zack)

4. American exceptionalism. Apple makes huge strides in generative AI. Streaming services right sizing. (Jason Calcanis)

Best Performing Asset:

1. Uranium ETF. ETF which invests in Uranium mining companies. Commodities are as such going to gain ground. On top, China is building 450 nuclear power stations, ESG policies are being relaxed with Ukraine war (David Friedberg)

2. Public techstocks. It is a prediction in relation to a worst performing asset which is privately held techstocks which are overvalued and will not go public and will stay at the current enterprise valuation for 2-3 years despite significant growth in revenue (Chamaath)

3. Energy prices is likely to escalate. Venezuala/Gyuna, Ethiopia/Egypt, Redsea/Tahutis, War with Iran. So many conflicts could erupt involving oil producing nations. Any of this could provoke oil price hikes (David Zacks)

4. Consumer comfort stocks - Airbnb, Doordash (Jason Calcanis)

Worst Performing Asset:

1. Magnificent 7 will perform slow relative to S&P493. AI is likely to spread across stocks (David Zacks)

2. LLM start ups will come down in private start up (Jason Calcanis)

3. Short vertical SaaS companies and long AI cloud providers who will support building custom applications. Price compression will happen on some of these highly priced user license category (David Friedberg)

4. Death of high margin software companies due to AI powered coding capabilities to replicate the same software (Chamaath)

Most Anticipated Trend:

1. Generative AI driven molecular discovery for novel uses -chemical and metal molecules. New products will be highly inflationary (David Friedberg)

2. Most important year for Bitcoin - series of ETFs, going mainstream adoption (Chamaath)

3. Exponential pace in AI will continue - things that we will reflect as turning point in this year (David Zacks)

4. Efficiency - AI assisted & Outsourcing driven technology work all over the globe due to versatality of the remote work (Jason Calcanis)

Most Anticipated Media:

1. The new album from Young spielberg. Gladiator 2 with Ridley Scott. 3 Body Problem (Netflix) (Jason Calcanis)

2. House of Dragons, Gladiator 2, The Founders - the story of paypal - Jimmy Sony (David Zacks)

3. Jimmy Donaldson - Mr Beast - added 100 million subscribers in Youtube. Going to bring in event based shows and the team is going to bring up more exciting genres (Chamaath)

4. Ai generated news. Realtime news, your personal presenter and any modality and adjusting itself in realtime (David Friedberg)